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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.