🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."